I've avoided being political for a few days, because I'm not sure that I have anything more to say than I've already said. I was a little surprised at how wide the margin for Huckabee and Obama were in Iowa. I think it will be very interesting to see what happens to the numbers over the next couple of weeks. Senator Clinton is surely still reeling from coming in third, and the pressure seems to be getting to her. They all look bad right now, though, don't they? The exhaustion must be crushing.
Earlier this week, I listened to a pretty lengthy interview of Mike Huckabee by Sean Hannity. As usual, Sean didn't beat around the bush, but asked him point blank about his multiple pardons of criminals, including murderers, and his ideas about immigration and taxes. I will give the governor credit for this. He is a smooth talker. The guy can clearly spin with the best of them. He's funny and sounds like he's talking to just average guys, not like a lofty politician talking down to his subjects. I can certainly see the appeal that he has to those who are simply looking on the surface.
However, there is something about him that makes my skin crawl. He talks just a little too slick. He reminds me so much of Bill Clinton, much more than poor Hillary does. He can take a truth and spin it around until it looks like something completely other than what it is. If you lift up the covers and peek around in Huckabee's record, it doesn't take long to find that the game he's talking is not the game he's been walking.
But the thing that bothers me the most about him is his nonchalant attitude towards foreign policy. His attitude about Iran specifically is frightening. There's a great editorial from the National Review Online quoting him joking about not having as much foreign policy experience as some of the other guys, but he did stay at a Holiday Inn Express the night before. Say what? That's just a lame attempt at using lame humor to cover up the fact that you have no business stepping onto the world stage at this critical hour.
He actually seems to be evoking the Golden Rule as the basis for his foreign policy, saying he believes we should treat other countries as we would like them to treat us. Isn't that sweet? That might work if we were not dealing with radical Islamic extremists who want nothing more than to see our entire nation either convert to Islam or evaporate into nuclear dust. What a naive thing to say. I believe in the Golden Rule. It is a fine way to live your day-to-day life, and follows the example of Christ. But are we really supposed to just sit back and be nice and wait for Ahmadenijad to carry out his very blatant threats, all the while coming closer and closer to nuclear proliferation? I think not.
My boy Fred actually did very well last night, but he just looks horrible. He seriously looks like he's been through the welcoming ceremonies at Sing Sing. Those bags under his eyes could get me all the way back to Thailand. The biggest problem with him, however, is that you have to be willing to listen to him to get a sense of who he is. He doesn't speak in sound bites. His speeches aren't flashy. But he says what he thinks, and he is who he is. You can't claim that he's a flip-flopper or that he's not a conservative. I wish he'd gotten in earlier so people would have taken him more seriously. But at this point I think the best I can hope for is that he makes the ticket as veep.
It will be very interesting to see what happens in the weeks to come. It's such a bizarre feeling to have the candidacy so up in the air. Huckabee won Iowa. Romney won Wyoming. McCain is probably going to win New Hampshire. Thompson is hoping for a win in South Carolina. And poor Rudy is just holding out for Florida. It's going to be quite a ride unless one of them begins to pick up momentum. If Huckabee were to win South Carolina and several of the Super Tuesday states, for instance, he would probably take off like Kerry did in 2004. But what if the winners are split all over the place? This could be crazier than the BCS having to put Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.
On the Democrat side, I think Hillary is in big trouble. I watched the Democrat debate last night as long as I could stomach it. That John Edwards needs a good slapping. Or what would be more fun is just running up behind him and messing up his hair really bad before taking off in a sprint. Now THAT would be funny. But I digress.
I think anybody watching and listening to a side-by-side of Hillary and Obama would be hard-pressed to come away really wanting to vote for her. Yes, some people feel compelled to vote for her because she's a woman. And some people want to vote for her because they want Bill back on the scene, although I can't fathom why anyone would want to do that to the country again. And I guess some people still think she's the smartest woman in America.
But that Obama is slick. He's a likeable guy. He's young, energetic, and his speeches can be downright inspirational. Unfortunately, he stands on the opposite side of nearly every issue from me. He's incredibly inexperienced, and seems to be somewhat of a lightweight. But he looks like the kind of guy you would enjoy hanging out with. And that is something Hillary definitely can't claim. I have no doubt that I would be backing him whole-heartedly if I were a Democrat and believed the same things he believes. And I think there are lots of folks out there who are going to do just that. How many viewers does Oprah have again?
What it's going to come down to is the Clinton machine. Do they really have some seriously damaging dirt on Obama that they haven't released yet, or is that just an attempt at making something appear bad that isn't? If they do, are they strategically saving it for release at the optimum moment, and will it be bad enough to kill his campaign? Or would it backfire on her for playing dirty? I'm willing to be we're going to get a chance to find out.
The whole thing is just weird this year, because there are so many candidates and no one is a clear frontrunner. It's much more enjoyable to me to watch the Democrat race, because I don't have much of a stake in it. I can sit back and spectate. But watching the Republican race makes my stomach hurt.
New Hampshire on Tuesday. Michigan and Nevada next week. Florida and South Carolina the last week of January. And then a whole bunch on February 5. We should know something by then. The trick is avoiding an ulcer in the meantime.
Somebody might have to slap me.
Sunday, January 06, 2008
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