Wednesday, January 09, 2008

I have very little time this morning (actually, none) but I just can't let this media frenzy over Hillary's "comeback" go without comment.

Hillary squeaked out a win in New Hampshire yesterday by two points, 39% to 37%. Because of her apparent campaign freefall ever since Iowa, this is seen as a huge crushing victory. Suddenly, in the course of one day, she's being touted the winner and Obama can't buy any media time. Doesn't anyone realize how ridiculous this is?

In October, Hillary had a 43 to 21 lead over Obama in New Hampshire. That's almost 20 points. In November, the margin began to shrink rapidly, so by December they were almost neck and neck. Yesterday, everyone in the media and political punditry had her losing by almost 10 points, until the numbers actually started to come in. Did 2000 and 2004 not teach us that pundits and exit polling can not be trusted?

So, yes, she carried the state by a slim margin. Congratulations. In New Hampshire, over half of the voters are over the age of 50. I think that says something. There are a ton of Massachusetts transplants in New Hampshire, and it's an East Coast mentality. Senator Clinton should have blown Obama away. But she didn't.

The fact that Senator McCain took this state for the Republicans when he is in the bottom tier of Republican candidates should say that we might not need to take New Hampshire all that seriously. This is the only state where McCain had a prayer, and he's acting as if the election is in the bag. Sorry, Senator, but the rest of us would like someone who at least pretends to be conservative heading up our party. You don't fit the description.

My only nagging fear is that voters will see a McCain victory and it will give him some momentum that he never would have had otherwise. After all, no one was planning to vote for Kerry until he won in Iowa. Howard Dean was the clear frontrunner up until the point where votes were cast. Once Kerry took that first state, he suddenly sported a bandwagon and Dean ended up chairing the DNC. Not exactly what he'd had in mind.

So let's try not to get caught up in the media hype. So much remains to be seen in the coming days and weeks. One thing we can be quite sure of, though, the Senator from New York will be shedding tears from now until February 5 on a daily basis. Somebody might want to invest in Kleenex.

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